About the model

Melbourne Water has released a new Maribyrnong River Flood Model to better understand current and future flood information in the Maribyrnong River region. This new model includes both 2024 and projected 2100 flood extent scenarios.

Replacing the previous flood model, this new model has the most up-to-date data about the Maribyrnong River, including the flood plain and changes in the surrounding urban environment, which impacts rainfall run off. It is also calibrated to the most recent flood event that took place in October 2022.

This model also incorporates 2100 climate change projections. It is one of the first models in Melbourne Water’s broader fast-tracked program to model every catchment in Melbourne with 2100 climate projections by 2026. 

Both the 2024 and 2100 scenarios are based on a flood event that has a one percent chance of occurring in any given year. This is known as a 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (1% AEP).

This new model is a significant milestone in us working together with our partners, customers, stakeholders and community to better prepare for:

  • emergency planning
  • community awareness and preparedness
  • land use planning decisions
  • potential flood mitigation where workable
  • other options to manage flood risk in the Maribyrnong River region.

What’s next

The completion of the new flood model also allows us to initiate a comprehensive assessment of potential long term sustainable flood mitigation options for the Maribyrnong River. We will be working closely with our customers, stakeholders and the community as we work through this long term and complex matter.

We will initiate a process to transfer the new model into land use planning with State Government, Councils and the community. The planning scheme amendment process ensures there is an opportunity for community feedback via a public exhibition process. We’re anticipating the process commences in the second half of the year.

Find out more

Let’s Talk

For more information and to keep up to date with progress, sign up to follow the Let’s Talk page here.

Community webinar

Please come along to a webinar on 21 May 2024 (6.30pm to 7.30pm) to hear from experts about the Maribyrnong River Flood Model and have your questions answered.

Sign up here.

Community flood education program

In partnership with VICSES and councils, we are running a flood education program to help people understand their flood risk and the actions they can take before, during and after a flood event to stay safe. Come along to an event near you and learn how to be flood ready.

Find out more by visiting the Melbourne Water prepare for flooding page here.


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